US elections: Trump vs Biden

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One area where we have witnessed the power and influence of the United States is in the implementation of the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, most notably on the commitment to keep a “soft” border on the island of Ireland. Following the UK’s proposal for an Internal Market Bill that would be in breach with its commitments, Biden made an unequivocal statement: “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit. Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.”

This may be a special case, since the successful negotiations were led by Democratic Senator George Mitchell. The only EU leader who was supportive of a Trump victory in 2016 was Europe’s “illiberal democrat” Viktor Orban. Trump and Orban have been buddies ever since. Trump has also embraced Boris Johnson and spoken favourably of many other authoritarian leaders across the world. He has also publicly berated the then prime minister of the UK Theresa May and the chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel.

While the State Departments under Obama had little influence over developments in Hungary, the moral force of their statements were important and would be important in countries like Poland that seek American approval and support against their Russian neighbours. A new president who spoke up against the destruction of media freedom, the attacks on judicial independence and the rule of law could be very influential and persuasive in a future Polish election.

We will have to wait and see. There are many factors that could be decisive in the forthcoming election, but EU relations will not be top of the concerns of US voters. Relations with Europe will be low on that list. But if there is a new president who wants to fight climate change, who supports global action against the pandemic, believes in liberal democracy, sees the strength in multilateralism but recognises the need for reform, this will already be a great result for the European Union. America can still be a shining city on the hill. 

Donald Trump

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